This course is designed to explore the effects of mass media on individuals, families, and institutions within modern society. In this seminar, students will 1) explore the “media effects” literature and relevant theories, and 2) examine what the literature tells us about media (print, broadcast, online, social) influences on women, children, adolescents, and families by exploring issues such as identity development, socialization, crime, violence, substance abuse, sexual attitudes and behaviors, marginalization of minority groups, and pathological health practices and other anti-social behaviors. The course will prepare second-year grad students for their comprehensive exams and more advanced graduate study in the area of media effects.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Blog #4: Predicting Behavior: Can We?

Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before. What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months? Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others? Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

Due: Oct. 7 @ 5 p.m.

25 comments:

  1. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before.

    Travel to Japan

    What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    Things stopping me: money, not having a passport, not knowing the language, scheduling and calendar pressures, not knowing cultural/traveling norms.
    So for me, it’s not so much a matter of stirring up the desire, it’s more a matter of overcoming some hurdles to actually be capable of doing it. So If I were really going to travel to Japan within the next 12 months, I would need to set a concrete goal of going in a time frame, and then set up mini-goals on a schedule to reach full capacity to do it. I would need to set small goals for money saving, language and cultural learning, and of course getting a passport and travel itinerary sorted.

    Now based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behavior of others?

    Based on my last answer I don’t think my model would be very whole, but more like a model specific for when a strong desire is already in place, but a sense of self-efficacy is not in place. It would be a simple flow chart based on creating self-efficacy with small, measurable, seemingly doable, goals. The more a person advances through the little goals, the more likely they are to achieve the behavior. I think the exact smaller goals to creating efficacy would have to be specific to the desired outcome behavior. Also the flow chart might have mini back loops if a segmented goal is still too big to feel self-efficacy, to break that one into smaller pieces.

    Finally apply your model to a serious social issue (like obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc)

    Now that I think of it, I think this model is used in 12-step-groups for overcoming addiction. They take this big, huge, overwhelming goal of sobriety, and break it up into smaller steps that feel actually doable, and when used, effectively bring about the giant goal.

    Explain how your model might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    I think we’re beginning to see this very thing in the church’s new series “12 steps to change.” They are giving examples and hope of self-efficacy by showing these steps one at a time. I don’t think they’re getting it exactly right though, because they’re also showing visual and audio examples of usage, which can get an addict thinking about the drug too much to even listen to the efficacy message that follows. Maybe my flow chart needs some moderating factor ground rules too.

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  3. One thing I would like to do in the next 12 months is jump out of a perfectly good airplane at 10-thousand feet with a huge blanket-like sail attached to my backpack with tiny strings. The factors that might best predict my willingness to skydive is my quest for adventure and a new thrill. On the other hand, I have a wife and kids, and even though according to the United States Parachuting association, I only have a 0.0007% chance of dying in a skydiving accident, that may be a chance I’m reluctant to take.

    A model I would use to predict the behavior of others would be based on the theory of planned behavior. It would look something like this:


    Intended behavior -→Attitude toward behavior →Perceived consequences-->
    Positive→ Carry out behavior
    Negative→ Decline behavior

    One social issue to which I could apply this model is high school dropouts. I lived in Spokane, WA before moving to Utah. In 2009, the high school graduation rate was only 65% for students in Spokane Public Schools District. It blows my mind how hundreds of teens could choose to not finish school. Based on this social issue, here is how I would apply my model:

    Intended behavior: drop out of high school

    Attitude toward behavior: school is too hard, school is not fun, the workload in school is too high, homework prevents me from hanging out with my friends, school is not for me, I don’t feel belonged

    Positive Perceived Consequences: I don’ t have to go to school, I have no homework and more free time, I can spend my day doing whatever I want

    Negative Perceived Consequences: Not graduating will not allow me to get a high paying job, if I don’t graduate I cannot go to college, women and men are less attracted to high school dropouts, I will not be better be equipped to support a family if I drop out

    A campaign designed to reduce the high school dropout rate needs to focus on all the reasons students drop out, squash myths about the positive consequence of dropping out of school, and allow students to see all of the benefits associated with receiving a high school diploma and the negative consequences of not.

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  4. I have been a competitive runner all of my life but I have mainly competed in mid-distance events. My goal is to train for a marathon with a long-term goal of competing in the Boston Marathon. Though this goal is ambitious, with the right training and effort it can be accomplished.

    In order to get into Boston Marathon shape, I would need to start running every day until I had increased my mileage to around 15-18 miles per day. I would also need to do a lot of interval work and prepare for a qualifying marathon in order to be considered for the Boston marathon. There are several factors that would predict my willingness to run a marathon, first and foremost would be making the decision everyday that this was something I wanted complete. Second, I would need to find enough time in my schedule to complete the necessary workouts. Third, I would need support from my wife and others to stay motivated. Fourth, I would need to remain healthy throughout my training and especially around the time of the event. Fifth, I would need to qualify for the race and plan the trip to Boston to participate.

    Challenge > Decision to act > Daily Commitment > Time > Support > Health > Qualification > Planning > Action

    I think this model can be applied to dealing with addictions. There is a challenge to overcome that will require daily commitment and support from others in order to heal and correct actions. I also think that the time factor and daily effort are huge factors in bringing about behavior change. When training, I must decide every day whether I am going to lace up and go for a run. The same challenge would be applicable overcoming addictions, there are hundred of small decisions that go into accomplishing a long-term goal.

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    1. I like how you included challenge in your model jason. My model was also built around a physical activity goal, although more trivial for myself, more serious for the campaign part. The challenge goes really well with addictions. Most times people stop doing something addictive is because they need a reason to stop. An invitation can help them be accountable to themselves and the other person. I find that it is more motivating to do something for someone else

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  5. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before.

    In the last year or so, I have been really wanting to run a half marathon. By accomplishing this goal, I would have to be healthier than my current state. Even though I keep saying I want to, my schedule gets so busy that I become filled with excuses as to why “now is not the time”. By turning this idea into reality, I must first gain real intent to get past my “excuses”

    What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    In order to make this a reality there are multiple factors that would need to come into play. I first need to make this goal a priority so that I am more likely to act on what is needed in order to move towards that goals. Some of these actions (smaller goals) would include: eating healthier, more regular gym visits, increase in my running abilities (little by little). I would also need a way to measure my progress so that I can feed my own motivation and re-evaluate/set further goals.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others?

    I feel like the best way to represent this would be in a simple step by step process or flow chart that could develop into a more intricate chart like Hornik and Yanovitzky’s chart on page 214. We may even encounter loops.

    Idea>Desire>Real Intent>Planning>Action>Achievement of Small Goals>Report> Further Actions> Achievement of Medium Goals>Report>Further Actions>Achieved Full Goal

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    The first thought that comes to mind is the addiction recovery program offered by the church. I know it also goes through some repentance steps, but I still feel like it can definitely apply. Not to get too churchy, but another thought that comes to mind is the scripture “line upon line, precept upon precept”. I feel as if goals work the same way, one step at a time, little by little. This is exactly how I would approach more serious issues like alcoholism. Instead of approaching the main goal “stop drinking”, try approaching the smaller goals first that will lead up to contributing strength to conquer the larger goal.

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  6. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before.

    I have been wanting to plan a trip to Europe with my husband. I went last summer with friends, and have been wanting to take him ever since!

    What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    I think the biggest thing predicting my willingness to go to Europe is that it is very expensive. We're both in school, so we're mostly just working to pay the bills and don't have much leftover to save for a big trip to Europe.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others?

    Desire to perform planned behavior (e.g. take a trip to Europe) > access to resources required to perform behavior (e.g. money) > performance of planned behavior(e.g. going to Europe)

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    My model can apply to a teenager having casual sex in high school. First, they have to have the desire to have casual sex. Next, the must have the resources (e.g. willing partner(s), time away from parents, a place to be alone). Finally, the actual performance of the behavior. If they desire to have casual sex in high school, and have the resources they need, they will likely have casual sex.

    A campaign against this, using the same model would include... First, a parent desires for their child to not have casual sex during high school. Second, the parent needs resources to make sure this doesn't happen. They need to make sure they are always aware of who their child is with, make sure the child doesn't have access to an empty house after school, and especially to talk to their child and teach them about the dangers of casual sex. Finally, if all of those resources are in order--the child will be less likely to engage in casual sex because they will not have somewhere to do it, their parent will know where they are, and they will have talked about casual sex with their parent.

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  7. Something that I have always wanted to do in life to imitate my all-time heroes (Batman, Jedi, and Ninja Turtles) would to do front flips. I have seen them only done on TV. I have seen very few people do actually back flips let alone front flips and it would be something incredibly awesome. But to me it could also be incredibly dangerous. In contemplating being willing to successfully perform this new physical ability I would take several things into consideration. I would have to be able to practice it in a safe environment or in a way where I would not become hurt. I would have to do exercises every day. I would have to watch people actually doing it. I might have to get into better physical shape. I might have to run more and develop certain muscles. I may need to listen to how people flip so after I can access the difficulty of it, then I can know how often they use the exercise or what to expect when I am practicing it.
    Considering all of these factors, I was able to make a rough model of to predict my willingness to flip.
    As part of the three starting independent variables I have chosen physical ability, risks, and social diffusion. Preceding these three variables, media exposure (viewing people flip in movies) would only influence social diffusion. Then using some of the ideas of Hornik and Yanovitsky (2003) in my model I consider social diffusion as talking with people who can flip, and listening to them explain the costs and benefits (p. 209). I will not consider parents or members of community as part of this social diffusion because they have very little interest in it. As mentioned social diffusion would names the costs or as I term it, risks. I would want to know the possibility of injury. So social diffusion would be related to risk. Physical ability would also be related to risk. Am I physically capable of doing a back flip? All three factors would then relate to the next phase of desire. The desire of actually performing the flip. Not related to desire but within the next stage would be practicality, being influenced by physical ability. Is this achievable? Do I have the time? Does it make sense? Although independent of themselves, Desire and Practicality would both affect Practice, or in other words small exercises to learn the art of the flip or prepare myself physically. And finally successful practices would in turn influence my overall intentions and in a more futuristic tone my flipping behavior.
    Because of the already physical nature of my model, I think it would best apply to an obesity campaign to lose weight. The difference in this model is that social diffusion would include family members, doctors, and general friends, as they all have concern for the individual battling obesity. Physical ability would influence the type of exercise they could start with, but all pieces of the model would be the same, the eventual intentions or behavior of regularly exercising to lose weight. I feel that because the model primarily addresses the risks and ability as influencing desire instead of the other way around, people will have a reason to desire, a reason to try. A “you can do it too” kind of attitude toward the model is what I am creating.

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    1. It's amazing how sometimes we would love to do something, like a front flip, but reality kicks in. I've often contemplated if the time and effort it will take to accomplish certain physical feats is worth it, and if I that time could better be spent with my wife and child.

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  8. Predicting Behavior:Can we?
    Perhaps there are theories that will incline us to believe we can predict human behavior, though i beg to differ on that, I am yet willing to learn how that works because even the scriptures animate this argument..."The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it?" (Jeremiah 17:9)
    I guess we can "Ponderize" on that!
    To put this in perspective, 26 year old Chris Harper-Mercer last Thursday (about the time we were in class) killed 10 people at Umpqua Community college in Roseburg, Oregon. One tend to ask, why was his conduct, behavior and activity on social media (believed to contain radical religious beliefs) not enough "red flag" to predict his capability to initiate and execute the dastardly act? However, i can agree that predicting behavior is a possibility within the context of studying, e.g Consumer behavior, voter apathy or peoples behavior toward government policies e.t.c

    Now, to answer the Questions:
    Just last week i shared with Sara Lamb, how i wanted to ride a skateboard on sidewalks, ride on and off curbs, cruz the streets and perform stunts that seem to catch my fancy. I Subsequently refrained and certain factors are responsible for that. If i may therefore, the next question in my case will be something like...What factors might best Predict your willingness NOT to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months? The factors are:

    Paucity of Funds:
    As an indigent international student, i do not have the luxury of funds to expend on skateboards and safety gears.

    Phobia of Accident:
    I have never got on skateboards ever,Therefore,I lack the dexterity most American skateboarders display and i feared that any attempt to magnify my fantasies may leave me with fractured bones. The healing process of an adult bone takes longer, meaning i might be propped with fractured appendage for 6-8 months. I figured this is not a risk i am willing to take.

    Family:
    I recall one of my Sons once requested skateboard and i successfully talked him out of it hinging on the potential hazards that may come to him and others because of the prevalent rocky, mostly pothole riddled road networks. How do i then explain to my children who are looking forward to my graduation already that i had sustained a debilitating injury riding skateboard.

    A model to predict behavior:
    1. Conceptualization stage
    2. Appraisal of goals/benefits
    3. Execution

    Applying the above to media campaign against Smoking:

    1.Conceptualization- Individuals conceptualize the idea of smoking through mediated sources and peer pressures. A continuous association or exposure to these sources may reinforce or feed the urge to give it a try.

    2.Appraisal of goals/benefits-This is the stage at which a potential smoker considers the pros and cons of the action based on certain variables i.e Health implications, family values, Sustainability of the act with the attendant financial implications. This is the stage that makes all the difference between giving up and going on.

    3.Execution- This stage is often the outcome of the appraisal stage. Execution is either positive or negative in the sense that an individual finally get to decide whether to go for it or decline. It works better if media campaign designs targets the decision making stage to help prospective smokers make informed choices.


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  9. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before.

    I have wanted to go up to Antelope Island and see the bison for a long time now.

    What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this

    new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    Basically, I haven't done this for three reasons. The first is the time commitment. This

    trip would probably eat up an entire day so I need to plan/find an open day. Next, this

    trip would cost money. The amount wouldn't be large, but the cost of gas, food, entrance

    fees, and possibly souvenirs could add up to $100-$150- something that I would need to

    budget for. Last, is the motivation factor. This could be anything from my son asking to

    go up there, being in the area for another reason and having some spare time, or even a

    particularly compelling news story.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict

    the behaviors of others?

    External Factor: Motivation to do the activity
    Internal Factor: Money and Time

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol

    use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to

    reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    Social issue: High Blood Pressure

    I would begin with getting the individual to become aware of their own blood pressure

    level.

    External Factor: I would start two campaigns, one aimed at the individual and one aimed at

    the community, including the health care community. The individual campaign would

    encourage individuals to find out what their blood pressure reading are to see if there is

    a problem. The community campaign would be aimed at showing how making blood pressure

    measuring machines available to the public at various locations can be beneficial. The

    benefits to the community at large is having a healthy and happy population and increased

    support of the community through appreciating for these machines.

    Internal Factor: These machines are relatively easy to use and take only minutes to

    measure blood pressure. If these machines are placed in place people visit often like

    grocery stores, community centers,etc, then an individual doesn't need to plan an extra

    trip. All of these things minimize the amount of time needed.
    These machines could be used at no cost to the individual.

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  11. I have always wanted to ride on the back of an elephant, but I have never had this opportunity in my life thus far. The factors that predict my willingness to ride an elephant in the next 12 months include money and free time (to travel to where an elephant would be). Based on that information, a model to predict others’ behavior who want to ride an elephant might look as follows:

    desire to ride elephant  saving money and putting time aside (planning)  riding an elephant

    or, on a broader scale:

    desire  planning  result

    Applied to a serious social issue, particularly increasing debt, the debt one incurs throughout life may be curbed if individuals (a) recognize they need to get out of debt and desire to do so, (b) make a plan over a span of years to pay back their debt and prioritize this goal in their finances, and (c) eventually get out of debt. Hypothetically, if there were a campaign designed to reduce the amount of people getting into debt, this model would aid in the campaign’s goal, explaining what work (mental and fiscal) is required for individuals to reach their goal of financial freedom.

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  12. Childbirth (specifically a natural birth) is a good example of something I have never done before but would like to do. There are various factors that predict my willingness to try the new behavior, including my existent beliefs about the natural power of our bodies, (influenced by religious and secular study), an aversion to heavy medications, a desire to do the best for my unborn child, and a slightly stubborn “I can do hard things” attitude. These form a basis for my interest in natural birth, but there are other factors that are more at the forefront to help me actually convince me to go through the process. One is actually being pregnant, accessibility to instructional resources, I also depend heavily on medical personnel support, spousal support (if not family support...though they have needed some convincing), and in the mere moment of giving birth – I am going to need to be able to think positively that I can do it on my own. So, with all of these factors in mind, I still intend to perform what I look forward to as a triumphant Eve-like birth…though probably not deep in the backwoods somewhere with Adam trying to ward off predatory animals and Satan all at the same time.

    However, though intention is an excellent predictor of behavior, there still exists the possibility that after (for example – as happened to my friend) 26 hours of labor, I’ll need to throw in the towel and get some serious modern medical attention. Timing, in this case, is not really decided by me, but in other situations procrastination may become a factor for actually going through with a planned behavior.
    A possible model for this behavior prediction draws some ideas from the Theory of Reasoned Action (I can’t help it, in addition to influencing the Hornik and Yanovitzky (2003) model we just studied it in COMMS 625 and it is stuck in my head and is influencing all of my thoughts!):

    Person’s Background/ lifestyle/normative beliefs (this may form an awareness and conditioning toward a future message) > Message >Evaluation of message based on background, lifestyle, self-efficacy, expectations of others, usefulness to one’s goals and lifestyle (attitude) > desire/intention to enact behavior > actual performance of behavior.

    I find obesity and health to be one of the most important issues facing Americans today. Likewise, my thesis is based on an ever-growing (no pun intended) obese child population in the U.S., which is ever more troubling for doctors, parents and kids alike. In applying the previous model to an anti-childhood-obesity campaign it is important to take into account the lifestyles, normative beliefs and practices of these children. Some may not even be aware that they are at risk for many health conditions down the road, or they may be convinced that obesity is beautiful. This understanding will help to develop the right kind of message that is sensitive to children’s beliefs (for example that their mother knows best) but that can also try to educate and empower kids about exercise and proper nutrition. An important aspect of this message is self-efficacy: helping kids to understand that they are capable of changing, and that it will be beneficial to them. Another aspect to understand is the DESIRE to act and the actual behavior itself. Children may need some further help to actually change (even though they have been fully convinced by a message). For instance, a school-wide program can discipline and help kids enact these principles that they learn.

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  13. Something I’ve been wanting to do, but have never done: I have always wanted to go to The Wizarding World of Harry Potter at Universal Studios.

    The factors that best predict my willingness to try to get there in the next 12 months is saving a ton of money for the flights and admissions.

    The model I would create would be to actually set a date. That gives me a goal to plan for instead of just wishing to go there in hopes that money will magically appear when I decide to go. I will have to save money every time I get paid and put it in my savings.

    This rough, outline of a model could be used towards abstaining from drugs by having a goal in mind. If some people are struggling with trying to quit, they could think of someone whom they love that they may have lost because of their serious issue. In order to get them back, for example, their child, they have to be serious and have the goal of getting their child back. With that goal in mind, they would need to have reminders to keep them disciplined to stay away from the addictive drugs. If a campaign used this model, I think it would be beneficial for them to contact or use information and keeping goals in mind periodically by reminding of the things they truly want in life.

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  14. I have always wanted to run a marathon, but I have never had the opportunity to do so. I have run the Ragnar, but I have not had the opportunity to run a marathon.

    There are a couple factors that would influence my ability and willingness to try a marathon:

    (1)The first factor would be my health. When I ran the Ragnar, I ended up with a bad case of IT band syndrome and for the last four years, I have been working with physical therapists and doctors to heal…but it hasn’t happened, so I have been told not to run.

    (2) The second factor would that I would need more time to dedicate to training.

    (3) The third factor is money. I would need the money to get a proper trainer to prevent injury, and to buy the proper clothing and equipment.

    (4) The fourth factor is a desire to run and do something hard. Motivation is key.

    (5) Support system. I would need my husband and family to help me on the hard days.

    A model could include:
    General physical health and ability (Genes and lifestyle)>Time>Resources>Motivation>Family Support=Marathon

    I think you could apply this model to other health outcomes like reducing childhood obesity. (1) Genes and predisposition to health outcomes need to be taken into account. (2) One would need time to dedicate to improved health, (3) Resources would include the money for doctors and nutritionists and maybe for more involvement in sports and things that encourage physical activity, (4) Motivation to be a transitional character, and (5) Family involvement and modeling.

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  15. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before.

    • Since moving away from home and having to buy my own groceries (and not having a student meal plan), I’ve really wanted to begin eating healthier. Before, my mom would be the one grocery shopping and buying all the healthy food, but now that I’m having to spend on groceries, I’ve been buying the inexpensive and unhealthy foods because it’s easier and much faster to shop for when I’m in a rush.

    What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    • The factors that would best predict my willingness to try to eat healthier would be my health. Healthy eating would make me feel better on the inside while helping me look better on the outside. It would help me to have more energy to get more done during the day (which would then lead to me having more time to enjoy things I like) and it would also help me better manage my super, overly-sensitive skin that tends to dislike the bad food I consume.
    • However, eating healthy can be more expensive which can be difficult on a student budget. I would have to work more in order to earn more to be able to buy better food. I would also need to invest time into searching for better deals on good food and maybe even couponing.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others?

    • Work more & earn more/search for deals & couponing -> buying healthy food -> healthier body (higher self-image), more energy, more time, more happiness :)

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    • I think a model like mine could be applied to the obesity issue in adults. The problem most people face with trying to eat healthier is that it is more expensive. I know I think about quantity over quality when getting the most for my dollar. People may have to begin investing more time on looking for the better deals and couponing. They may have to work more or find a better paying job to be able to afford a healthier diet. I would like to also think that people struggling with obesity may also have other factors that may further motivate them like: risk of diabetes, heart disease, and death. I realize this model includes changing some factors that are fare from realistic for many people, but in an ideal world, it could work. A campaign designed to tackle changing this behavior would need to focus on how to facilitate changing those factors outside of the issue in order to be able to make it work.

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  16. Something I’ve wanted to do for a long time is take a semi-spontaneous road trip with friends.

    The factors that would predict my willingness fall into two categories: mental and physical. The physical barriers are probably the easiest to overcome: getting a reliable car (even if none of us have one – we can just rent), getting enough money (honestly, I probably already have enough), figuring out places to visit/stay, and finding a time that will work for everybody (probably the most difficult).

    The mental barriers include wrestling with the sense of irresponsibility of taking off spontaneously when I or my friends might have responsibilities (school, work, church callings, family, etc.) and dealing with the disapproval I might get from my parents (they aren’t big fans of spontaneity). I suppose I might also have a few fears like breaking down in the desert and getting stuck, feeling unsafe if our lack of plans leads us to a sketchy motel or town, or even overestimating the fun we’d have and being disappointed. But, when it comes down to it – the hardest part is just the getting the ball rolling. You gotta just DO IT!

    If I were to make a model for working through this process it might look like this:
    Develop a general plan (west-coast road trip this upcoming weekend)  Propose plan to friends and assess their interest  Identify any major barriers (physical limitations or major commitments/responsibilities)  if none, commit to go  reconcile any remaining cognitive dissonance  Deal with minor technicalities  Go

    Very simply put, so as to apply to other situations:

    Develop idea  Gather support  Identify major barriers (if none) commit  reconcile minor mental marries  reconcile minor physical barriers  put plan into action

    Rather than picking a particular issue, this model could be applied to any sort of activity or campaign led by the at-risk audiences themselves (or at least their peers). For example, a high school club, led by students, might host an event aimed at reducing obesity/promoting physical activity among the student body.
    Since they themselves are the “at-risk population,” by developing the ideas together and gathering the support of their peers, they could strengthen the participating member’s commitment to the purpose. While this is a model that would work best on a small scale, large organizations with small local chapters could easily apply this.

    In fact, now that I think of it, this is similar to how the church works. Having the larger church-wide purposes in mind, the church members themselves develop ideas, support each other, problem solve together, and act together on a local level – which creates the high potential for positive change. It works!

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  18. Using Reasoned Action Theory, I will have to look at the behavior I want to achieve, Which is to go to the gym, for one hour, 5 days a week. I will have to support pre-existing beliefs that would make me achieve that behavioral goal.

    Those specific beliefs would include: belief that i am supposed to be healthy because of its importance on the quality of life we live. I have received this belief from countless background sources, like personal experience, scientific literature, motivational videos and people I encounter. In order for me to achieve my goal I will have to go back to the sources that strengthen the beliefs that will in turn create the intention required for it to occur.

    If you know the beliefs that an individual has it would be possible to predict behavior. However, the competing beliefs that you would have to weigh in order to figure out the most probable behavioral outcome would be very difficult. Some behaviors have specific beliefs. Those specific beliefs can be good indicators for specific behaviors.

    However, it is important to not fall into predicting people's behaviors based on where they are from or what their religion is. That is because reasoned action theory research shows that there are a large amount of background sources that could vary in each individual. People do not only have the background sources we think they have. And the degree of importance each of those background sources holds varies as well.

    Reasoned action theory is also very important when it comes to persuasive message content. For example, obesity is one of the most important health issues to be tackled in the United States. Obesity could be genetically moderated in some individuals; however, reducing background sources that create beliefs associated with behaviors that cause obesity would be a very essential preventative addition. People already suffering from obesity should not be held accountable for their situations and should be given therapeutic options from their insurance providers.

    In order to tackle obesity the government should look into the sources that obese people are most being influenced by. For example, the companies that are using advertising techniques that are creating unhealthy beliefs in individuals should be questioned. I think the best answer a company should have is to provide healthier options for their customers. If a belief is proven to create multiple behavioral issues that are causing the increased incidence of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and hypertension, action has to be taken. A start would be to convince media outlets, through empirical findings, to reduce the amount of advertisements they are bombarding their consumers with. Furthermore, convincing media outlets to talk about this issue or designing anti-fastfood advertising that promotes healthy beliefs and behaviors would be important. Anti-obesity campaigns should design message content that supports healthy beliefs like the benefits of eating healthy and exercising has and the bad impact fast food has on someone.

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  19. Something I’ve wanted to do but haven’t done:
    Since I was 17, I’ve wanted to go to Italy. I have studied a ton of art history and learned Italian (which is completely useless everywhere except Italy), and at one point was accepted & trained for a study abroad, but was always limited by money and time. My awesome husband really wants to make this happen before we get busy with a family, jobs, etc., so we have tried to start planning a trip. Whether or not it actually happens, however, is a completely different story.

    Factors that best predict my willingness to do this in the next 12 months:
    Having the money to go/prices being low enough to afford. Having time to go for a long enough period for it to be worth the money (for both my husband and me). Resources to arrange lodging and transportation while in Italy.

    Prediction model:
    Desire > Research & Preparation (tracking flight prices, saving money, etc.) > Intended action (buying the plane ticket, booking lodging, etc.) > Action (travel)

    Social issue application:
    I think this model can also apply to reducing gun violence. I’m from Oregon, and I have several friends with ties to the shooting last week, so it’s on my mind. Because firearms are a controversial issue (as opposed to something like obesity, where everyone is uniformly against it) it complicates the process, but I think it still works. In a campaign against gun violence, I think it’s critical to have a desire to truly understand and act, as well as to inspire that in others. Next comes research and preparation, and because of the nature of the issue, I think that finding accurate statistics is very important, although difficult. Also, because of the national nature of this issue as well, saving money to educate and contact people is necessary. Next is intended action, or laying the groundwork to contact and educate people, likely lawmakers, as well as arranging support. Finally, the last step actually achieving action (legislation, policies, etc.) and might take the most time, but without the previous steps, it’s much less likely to be successful.

    I don't know how well it actually works, but I think there's value in adaptation! :)

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  20. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before. What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    I'd like to gain weight. This sounds stupid but I don't get hungry, I'm a terrible cook, and I don't like wasting money on groceries that go bad for food that tastes awful and uses my energy that could be spent on doing homework or spending time with family.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others?
    Could I? Well I will do my best.
    I think there are at least two major factor predicting behavior- perceived ability and motivation. Now I say "perceived" because we are only trying to estimate a person's attempt- not it success. I say "motivation" instead of desire although I'm sure we can predict action based on a threat or fear rather than simply the perceived gains: If we're going to be very phycological about it, we could say any action a human take has a positive choice to do so. So I suppose a third unsaid aspect of this would have to include the agency of the subject. Without that, no prediction needs to be made.
    Following those two categories, sub-objections would have to be realized.
    In perceived ability: Money, Time, Physical Barriers, Discipline, Priorities, organized plans, and perhaps previous experience weighing on ability.
    In Motivation: Social stigmas, Loss Aversion, Desire for end goal, willingness to given up other options, ect.

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    By my model, in order to get someone to start eating healthier one would have to give them first the tools to do so by working within the budget, making shopping fit into a schedule, meals must be within the talents of a subject to prepare, a long-term plan has to be laid out and steps conducsive to the human condition considered (like allowing for mistakes). Then, such things as reminders as to why you want a healthy diet, removing mental obstacles, weighing in on the social stigma of eating badly, ect.

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    1. In my case, my major problem is one of priorities. If I was convinced that spending time learning how to cook healthy meals was better spent than talking with my parents, I could probably do it. But I said it was a model- not a solution.

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  21. I’ve always wanted to move to another country. The factors that would predict my willingness to try the new behavior: finding jobs for my husband and I and finding reliable health care. Before I could find new jobs and look into living conditions, I would need to convince my husband. He’s quite content to live here and enjoy our current stability. I would really love to have a two-year adventure living somewhere else.

    For a model, I would say that normative beliefs are the groundwork. In the example I used, my husband believes job stability is not just important financially, but is important for helping avoid stress that could affect our marriage and family. I, on the other hand, think that moving abroad would be such a fun adventure that would strengthen our marriage even if it is difficult for us both to find jobs. Normative beliefs can come from culture, families, past experiences, etc. They are the crucial beginning place for any decision-making. I then think messages have a role. This includes media messages, messages from peers, etc. Obviously, some of these messages are processed centrally and some of them are processed peripherally, but they all have an impact. The extended parallel processing theory also takes efficacy—both internal and external—into account. This means that people need to feel that they can either accomplish the change, or there are things in place to help them accomplish the change.

    I’m using alcohol for my example. The first thing is normative beliefs: everybody’s doing it, my parent’s don’t approve, no one gets hurt by drinking, etc. The messages are from peers, movies, parents, teachers, etc. Efficacy involves whether or not they feel that they have the power to turn their peers down and their beliefs about the results of that decision.

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  22. Think of something you have been wanting to do, but have actually never done before. What factors might best predict your willingness to try the new behavior or to adopt this new idea/thing in the next 12 months?

    I have been wanting to learn Spanish for the longest time, and the main thing that was stopping me was my inability to commit. Time, energy, money… well, mostly time. If I were to decide to move to Mexico to go to school, I would definitely get on that. And if I signed up for a whole semester worth of Spanish classes. Yeah, that.

    Now, based on your answer to the previous question, could you create a model to predict the behaviors of others?

    Hmm, I would not base a model to predict behavior of others on my thought process, since I am very irrational for the most part. Buuut, based on my answer, here is what it would look like:

    End goal (what is going to drive the behavior)→Available resources→Priorities→Specific Actions(like signing up for a semester worth of classes kind of forces you to learn some Spanish)

    Finally, apply your model to a serious social issue (e.g., obesity, adolescent alcohol use, smoking, etc.) and explain how it might be beneficial to a campaign designed to reduce incidences of this behavior among vulnerable audiences.

    If I were to apply my model to, let’s say anorexia, I would start with determining the motivating factor (end goal). For example, many anorexic people admit that they want to have children in the future and that is a perfectly motivating goal. We would then have to access if they have the support of their family, the money and emotional resources to devote to healing. Then priorities come into place for when the anorexic decides to back out on the whole “getting out of the ditch” plan. After which specific actions that would bind them to act in a certain way need to be taken. Being admitted to rehab is a good one. Tada.

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